This is the article that appeared in the October 2024 edition of Catalyst, our monthly journal. The date that prints out reflects the day that it was uploaded to our website. For a more accurate date of when the article was first published, check out the news release, here.
In 2016, Donald Trump squared off against Hillary Clinton, and he won the Catholic vote by a margin of 52 to 45. In 2020, Trump narrowly took the Catholic vote, beating Joe Biden 50-49.
Two recent polls of Catholics came to different conclusions. An EWTN News/RealClear Opinion Research survey showed Harris winning 50-43 over Trump. But a Pew Research poll showed Trump winning 52-47.
Why the difference? One reason may be because the EWTN survey was based on self-identified Catholics; the Pew survey was based on Catholics who are registered voters.
In virtually every instance, Protestants tend to vote Republican and Jews tend to vote Democrat. Catholics are the swing vote—they can go for either Party.
It is important to note that there are more Independents than there are Republicans or Democrats. They constitute a plurality of voters.
In short, Catholics and Independents may decide the election.
